DREAMIN' OF VIRGINIA – OVERNIGHT:  Many people don't realize that Virginia, one of the most critical of the swing states, will elect a governor in less than two months.  At one time Virginia was solidly conservative, a red state.  Then, due to an influx of northern liberals moving into the Virginia counties near Washington, the state turned purple and then blue.  Republicans are trying to flip it back.  And they might just do it.  From RedState: 

The prognostications about the 2022 election have begun and rightly so, given the current collapse of the Biden administration. Historically, unpopular presidents lead to mid-term wipe-outs for their party, and Republicans appear to be in their best position since the conclusion of the 2020 election.

Ironically, a poll out of Virginia that doesn’t actually ask anything about the 2022 election may be the best barometer yet, though. Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate for governor has now taken the lead over Democrat Terry McAuliffe with likely voters. That election will happen this year and will represent a major marker in how public opinion is shifting in even blue states.

Another poll showing a close contest in the Virginia Governor’s race. A new University of Mary Washington survey shows Terry McAuliffe 43%, Glenn Youngkin 38% but among likely voters, it’s Youngkin 48%, McAuliffe 43%. @nbcwashington

Joe Biden won Virginia 54-44% in 2020. It wasn’t close, and this race between Youngkin and McAuliffe shouldn’t be either. A month ago, the narrative was beginning to form that Youngkin was not only dead in the water, but that he’d be absolutely shellacked on election day. Now, he’s actually within striking distance to possibly pull the upset in a state that has become a blue bastion thanks to Northern Virginia’s heavy leftward transformation.

This is also not the first poll to show Youngkin doing better than expected. Another recent survey showed Youngkin now leading with independents, making turnout the key factor moving forward.
If Youngkin somehow pulls the upset, it would signal a coming red wave in 2022 that may make 2010 look tame. Taking back the House is already expected for the GOP, but they could end up netting 40+ seats and the Senate majority if they are operating in an environment that makes Youngkin governor of Virginia.

But even if Youngkin doesn’t win, Democrats are counting on McAuliffe to clean house in order to bolster the narrative that things aren’t so bad. If the Republican ends up losing by only 4-6 points, that result will crush Democrat hopes of rebounding and reasserting themselves going into 2022’s election season.

COMMENT:  This will probably be the most exciting race in the country come election day.  I have no doubt that the Dems will wind up playing the race card, or any other ethnic card, to try to pull out a victory.  Republicans are animated, though, and do believe they can take back the governorship.  The path to 2022 is becoming more exciting.

September 22, 2021